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Understanding Probability in Raffles

  1. Probability and Winning: It is important to understand that a 99.9% chance of winning is not the same as a 100% guarantee, and likewise, a 0.01% chance is not equivalent to 0%. The concept of probability governs raffles, and even though the odds may be heavily in your favor, there is still a small possibility of not winning. It is essential to acknowledge this inherent uncertainty.

  2. No Guarantee with Ticket Quantity: Merely increasing the number of tickets you purchase does not guarantee a win. Each ticket you enter into the raffle carries its own probability, and while buying more tickets may increase your chances, it does not ensure success. The outcome is still subject to the laws of probability.

  3. Improbable Events: It is crucial to recognize that highly improbable events can still occur. For instance, the chance of rolling heads in a coin flip a hundred times in a row is extremely unlikely but not impossible. The probability of such events happening may be incredibly low, but they are still within the realm of possibility.

  4. Buying All Tickets: The only way to guarantee a 100% chance of winning a raffle is by purchasing the entirety of the ticket supply, excluding other participants entirely. This approach, however, may not be feasible or practical in most cases.

  5. Spend Responsibly: It is advisable to spend only what you are comfortable with losing in raffles. Raffles involve risk, and there is no certainty of winning. Keep track of your spending and ensure that it remains within a range that you are comfortable with. If the pursuit of raffle tickets stops being enjoyable and starts causing financial strain, it may be necessary to take a break.

  6. Last-Minute Purchases (--Important--): Never assume that you will make the last purchase in a raffle. Others may also be looking to make a late entry, and the supply of tickets could be exhausted before you have the chance to purchase. Be mindful of the maximum possible ticket supply and consider all the tips provided in this guide. Purchase only what you are comfortable with.

  7. Respect for Sellers: While purchasing undersold listings may be a strategic approach, it is important not to wish for all listings to undersell. This mindset can be harmful to the sellers. When buying tickets, consider the price and total supply of the listing. Additionally, prioritize purchasing tickets for the NFTs you genuinely desire to have.

  8. Commitment to User Satisfaction: Although satisfaction in raffles cannot be guaranteed due to the inherent nature of probability, we strives to assist both sellers and buyers in feeling comfortable when using the platform.

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